Indian Wells MastershardR128Wednesday, March 4, 2026
No-vig market probability
Shapovalov 45%55% Tsitsipás
2.09Recorded odds1.72
FINAL RESULT
Match score
Denis ShapovalovVSStéfanos Tsitsipás
6Set 12
3Set 26
6Set 34
Denis Shapovalov won the match
CAREER COMPARISON
Player records
Denis ShapovalovStéfanos Tsitsipás
43%
Career Win %
55%
47%
Win % on Hard
53%
82%
Holds Serve
86%
17%
Breaks Serve
15%
60%
1st Serve In
62%
74%
1st Serve Won
76%
35%
Return Pts Won
34%
8.0
Aces / match
7.4
49%
Tiebreak %
53%
24%
Deciding-set %
50%
1604
Rating
1584
SERVICE PLACEMENT
Serve targets from this match
Denis Shapovalov67 serves
Where they place their serve
Stéfanos Tsitsipás84 serves
Where they place their serve
4%Wide
13%Body
36%T
10%T
1%Body
34%Wide
36%Wide
11%Body
7%T
23%T
7%Body
17%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T36%
Top targetDeuce · Wide36%
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Denis Shapovalov defeated Stéfanos Tsitsipás 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 in the first round of the Indian Wells Masters on hard court, an upset victory against the pre-match favourite. Shapovalov, available at 2.09 odds, outplayed the higher-ranked Tsitsipás, who entered as the betting favourite at 1.72. The Canadian took control early with a dominant first set, though Tsitsipás responded in the second to level the match. Shapovalov's composure proved decisive in the decider, securing the break of serve needed to seal progression. The result represents a significant statement from Shapovalov against a top-tier opponent and strengthens his credentials heading into the latter stages of the tournament.