Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Elena RybakinaOpen full analysisJasmine PaoliniOpen full analysis

NingbohardSFSaturday, October 18, 2025
No-vig market probability
Rybakina 67%33% Paolini
1.45Recorded odds2.95
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Elena RybakinaVSJasmine Paolini
6Set 13
6Set 22

Elena Rybakina won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Elena RybakinaJasmine Paolini
78%
Career Win %
62%
80%
Win % on Hard
52%
81%
Holds Serve
68%
35%
Breaks Serve
38%
58%
1st Serve In
68%
73%
1st Serve Won
62%
44%
Return Pts Won
45%
6.4
Aces / match
1.2
57%
Tiebreak %
71%
60%
Deciding-set %
61%
1954
Rating
1629
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Elena Rybakina61 serves
Where they place their serve
Jasmine Paolini69 serves
Where they place their serve
23%Wide
2%Body
26%T
18%T
5%Body
26%Wide
14%Wide
9%Body
28%T
16%T
13%Body
20%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T26%
Top targetDeuce · T28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Elena Rybakina defeated Jasmine Paolini 6–3, 6–2 in the semi-final of the WTA 250 event in Ningbo on hard court, a result that aligned with pre-match odds favouring the Kazakhstani player. Rybakina's dominant performance saw her control both sets, breaking serve consistently and limiting opportunities for Paolini to establish rhythm. The Italian, despite her recent form on the tour, struggled to match Rybakina's serve and court positioning throughout the encounter. Rybakina's commanding display underscores her continued threat on hard courts and positions her favourably for the final, whilst Paolini will reflect on a semi-final exit in what had been a competitive tournament run.