Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Elena RybakinaOpen full analysisJessica PegulaOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardSFThursday, January 29, 2026
No-vig market probability
Rybakina 66%34% Pegula
1.43Recorded odds2.77
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Elena RybakinaVSJessica Pegula
6Set 13
7Set 26

Elena Rybakina won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Elena RybakinaJessica Pegula
78%
Career Win %
60%
80%
Win % on Hard
62%
81%
Holds Serve
72%
35%
Breaks Serve
36%
58%
1st Serve In
62%
73%
1st Serve Won
66%
44%
Return Pts Won
44%
6.4
Aces / match
2.9
57%
Tiebreak %
53%
60%
Deciding-set %
54%
1954
Rating
1809
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Elena Rybakina73 serves
Where they place their serve
Jessica Pegula76 serves
Where they place their serve
12%Wide
12%Body
26%T
21%T
11%Body
18%Wide
18%Wide
20%Body
13%T
9%T
30%Body
9%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T26%
Top targetAd · Body30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Elena Rybakina defeated Jessica Pegula 6–3, 7–6 in the semi-final of the Australian Open on hard court, confirming her status as the pre-match favourite with odds of 1.43 to Pegula's 2.77. Rybakina's composed performance across both sets, particularly her tiebreak conversion in the second, secured her passage to the final and maintained her unbeaten record against the American in this tournament. The result extends Rybakina's recent dominance at Melbourne Park and positions her as a genuine contender for the title.