Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
Return to calendar
FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Elena RybakinaOpen full analysisKarolína MuchováOpen full analysis

BrisbanehardQFFriday, January 9, 2026
No-vig market probability
Rybakina 77%23% Muchová
1.26Recorded odds4.29
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Elena RybakinaVSKarolína Muchová
2Set 16
6Set 22
4Set 36

Karolína Muchová won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Elena RybakinaKarolína Muchová
78%
Career Win %
65%
80%
Win % on Hard
69%
81%
Holds Serve
76%
35%
Breaks Serve
34%
58%
1st Serve In
63%
73%
1st Serve Won
67%
44%
Return Pts Won
43%
6.4
Aces / match
3.6
57%
Tiebreak %
73%
60%
Deciding-set %
56%
1954
Rating
1746
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Elena Rybakina91 serves
Where they place their serve
Karolína Muchová69 serves
Where they place their serve
19%Wide
13%Body
20%T
9%T
4%Body
35%Wide
12%Wide
28%Body
14%T
19%T
4%Body
23%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide35%
Top targetDeuce · Body28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Karolína Muchová upset favourite Elena Rybakina 6–2, 2–6, 6–4 in the quarter-final of the Brisbane WTA 250 on hard court. Rybakina entered as the odds-on favourite at 1.26, with Muchová priced at 4.29, yet the Czech player delivered a composed performance to claim victory in three sets. After losing the opening set decisively, Muchová levelled the match with a commanding second set before seizing control in the decider to secure her place in the semi-finals. The comeback victory demonstrates Muchová's ability to read and adapt to her opponent's game, particularly after a sluggish start. This result significantly boosts Muchová's Brisbane campaign and marks a notable scalp against a top-ranked opponent.