Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Elena RybakinaOpen full analysisNaomi OsakaOpen full analysis

TorontohardQFWednesday, August 12, 2026
No-vig market probability
Rybakina 49%51% Osaka
1.91Recorded odds1.86
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Elena RybakinaVSNaomi Osaka
4Set 16
7Set 26
6Set 34

Elena Rybakina won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Elena RybakinaNaomi Osaka
78%
Career Win %
59%
80%
Win % on Hard
64%
81%
Holds Serve
75%
35%
Breaks Serve
30%
58%
1st Serve In
58%
73%
1st Serve Won
72%
44%
Return Pts Won
42%
6.4
Aces / match
6.2
57%
Tiebreak %
42%
60%
Deciding-set %
56%
1954
Rating
1672
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Typical serve targets · career average

Elena Rybakina8808 serves
Where they place their serve
Naomi Osaka4556 serves
Where they place their serve
17%Wide
14%Body
21%T
13%T
9%Body
26%Wide
19%Wide
16%Body
18%T
19%T
13%Body
15%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide26%
Top targetAd · T19%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Elena Rybakina defeated Naomi Osaka 4–6, 7–6, 6–4 in the quarter-final of the Toronto Masters 1000 on hard court on 12 August 2026, overcoming pre-match odds that favoured her opponent. Despite losing the opening set, Rybakina recovered to force a second-set tie-break, which she won before securing the third set to advance. The result represents a significant scalp for Rybakina, who upset the betting markets to progress to the semi-final stage of the Canadian event.