Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Elena RybakinaOpen full analysisPaula BadosaOpen full analysis

BrisbanehardR16Thursday, January 8, 2026
No-vig market probability
Rybakina 79%21% Badosa
1.22Recorded odds4.61
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Elena RybakinaVSPaula Badosa
6Set 13
6Set 22

Elena Rybakina won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Elena RybakinaPaula Badosa
78%
Career Win %
58%
80%
Win % on Hard
52%
81%
Holds Serve
71%
35%
Breaks Serve
36%
58%
1st Serve In
61%
73%
1st Serve Won
68%
44%
Return Pts Won
44%
6.4
Aces / match
4.0
57%
Tiebreak %
40%
60%
Deciding-set %
56%
1954
Rating
1611
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Elena Rybakina46 serves
Where they place their serve
Paula Badosa75 serves
Where they place their serve
28%Wide
7%Body
17%T
13%T
9%Body
26%Wide
12%Wide
16%Body
23%T
23%T
12%Body
15%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide28%
Top targetDeuce · T23%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Elena Rybakina defeated Paula Badosa 6–3, 6–2 in the round of 16 at the Brisbane WTA 250 on hard court on 8 January 2026. As the pre-match favourite at odds of 1.22, Rybakina delivered a commanding performance to advance, with Badosa unable to mount sustained resistance at 4.61 odds. The Kazakhstani's dominance across both sets underlined her status as a seeded contender in the tournament. Rybakina's progression to the quarterfinals strengthens her opening campaign on the Australian summer swing.