Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Elena RybakinaOpen full analysisVarvara GrachevaOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardR64Thursday, January 22, 2026
No-vig market probability
Rybakina 92%8% Gracheva
1.03Recorded odds11.46
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Elena RybakinaVSVarvara Gracheva
7Set 15
6Set 22

Elena Rybakina won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Elena RybakinaVarvara Gracheva
78%
Career Win %
27%
80%
Win % on Hard
31%
81%
Holds Serve
52%
35%
Breaks Serve
35%
58%
1st Serve In
61%
73%
1st Serve Won
56%
44%
Return Pts Won
44%
6.4
Aces / match
1.3
57%
Tiebreak %
50%
60%
Deciding-set %
33%
1954
Rating
1447
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Elena Rybakina58 serves
Where they place their serve
Varvara Gracheva56 serves
Where they place their serve
19%Wide
10%Body
21%T
10%T
5%Body
34%Wide
16%Wide
25%Body
11%T
11%T
18%Body
20%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide34%
Top targetDeuce · Body25%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Elena Rybakina defeated Varvara Gracheva 7–5, 6–2 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court on 22 January 2026, confirming her status as the overwhelming pre-match favourite with odds of 1.03. Gracheva, a significant underdog at 11.46, offered limited resistance as Rybakina controlled the match across both sets, taking the opener in a competitive first set before dominating the second to seal a straightforward progression. The victory underscores Rybakina's current form heading deeper into the tournament.