Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Elise MertensOpen full analysisTereza ValentovaOpen full analysis

OsakahardR16Thursday, October 16, 2025
No-vig market probability
Mertens 47%53% Valentova
2.09Recorded odds1.82
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Elise MertensVSTereza Valentova
4Set 16
1Set 26

Tereza Valentova won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Elise MertensTereza Valentova
44%
Career Win %
65%
38%
Win % on Hard
65%
69%
Holds Serve
71%
31%
Breaks Serve
39%
61%
1st Serve In
61%
67%
1st Serve Won
67%
42%
Return Pts Won
46%
3.3
Aces / match
2.4
31%
Tiebreak %
38%
33%
Deciding-set %
75%
1523
Rating
1602
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Elise Mertens45 serves
Where they place their serve
Tereza Valentova54 serves
Where they place their serve
27%Wide
16%Body
11%T
29%T
11%Body
7%Wide
19%Wide
19%Body
17%T
19%T
17%Body
11%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · T29%
Top targetDeuce · Wide19%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Tereza Valentova defeated Elise Mertens 6–4, 6–1 in the second round of the WTA 250 event in Osaka on a hard court, confirming her status as pre-match favourite with odds of 1.82 to Mertens' 2.09. Valentova's dominant second-set performance, where she conceded just one game, underscored her superiority on the day and suggests she has found considerable momentum at the tournament. The Czech player's clinical execution in the closing stages prevented any sustained pressure from Mertens, who struggled to maintain consistency through the match. Valentova's progression to the quarter-finals positions her well within the draw, whilst Mertens will need to reassess her hard-court form moving forward.