Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Elsa JacquemotOpen full analysisMarta KostyukOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardR128Sunday, January 18, 2026
No-vig market probability
Jacquemot 12%88% Kostyuk
7.83Recorded odds1.07
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Elsa JacquemotVSMarta Kostyuk
6Set 17
7Set 26
7Set 36

Elsa Jacquemot won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Elsa JacquemotMarta Kostyuk
43%
Career Win %
62%
46%
Win % on Hard
64%
65%
Holds Serve
70%
32%
Breaks Serve
37%
62%
1st Serve In
59%
65%
1st Serve Won
68%
43%
Return Pts Won
45%
4.3
Aces / match
3.3
46%
Tiebreak %
55%
60%
Deciding-set %
52%
1489
Rating
1717
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Elsa Jacquemot160 serves
Where they place their serve
Marta Kostyuk134 serves
Where they place their serve
26%Wide
13%Body
12%T
26%T
16%Body
8%Wide
25%Wide
13%Body
14%T
9%T
23%Body
16%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide26%
Top targetDeuce · Wide25%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Elsa Jacquemot defeated Marta Kostyuk 6–7 7–6 7–6 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court on 18 January 2026, delivering a major upset against the heavy favourite. Kostyuk entered with odds of 1.07, making her the overwhelming pre-match favourite, whilst Jacquemot was a 7.83 outsider. The match proved remarkably tight across all three sets, each decided by a single break or tiebreak, with neither player able to establish decisive separation. Jacquemot's ability to stay composed in the closing moments of consecutive tiebreaks proved the difference in a contest that defied the betting odds. The result marks a significant scalp for Jacquemot early in the season and suggests considerable resilience under pressure in a Grand Slam environment.