Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Holger RuneOpen full analysisNicolas JarryOpen full analysis

WimbledongrassR128Monday, June 30, 2025
No-vig market probability
Rune 74%26% Jarry
1.30Recorded odds3.76
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Holger RuneVSNicolas Jarry
6Set 14
6Set 24
5Set 37
3Set 46
4Set 56

Nicolas Jarry won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Holger RuneNicolas Jarry
52%
Career Win %
45%
40%
Win % on Grass
75%
79%
Holds Serve
85%
17%
Breaks Serve
14%
61%
1st Serve In
65%
70%
1st Serve Won
74%
35%
Return Pts Won
33%
5.1
Aces / match
8.1
54%
Tiebreak %
52%
50%
Deciding-set %
44%
1565
Rating
1583
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Holger Rune150 serves
Where they place their serve
Nicolas Jarry138 serves
Where they place their serve
19%Wide
16%Body
18%T
17%T
9%Body
21%Wide
18%Wide
12%Body
22%T
13%T
15%Body
19%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide21%
Top targetDeuce · T22%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Nicolas Jarry defeated Holger Rune 4–6, 4–6, 7–5, 6–3, 6–4 in the first round of Wimbledon on grass on 30 June 2025, delivering a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. Rune, seeded higher with odds of 1.30, dominated the opening two sets, but Jarry mounted a sustained comeback to claim three consecutive sets and secure victory. The Chilean's resilience from two sets down demonstrated tactical adjustment on the grass surface, where Rune's early dominance proved insufficient to close out the match. This result represents a notable scalp for Jarry at the Championships and signals potential vulnerability in Rune's grass-court game despite his favoured status entering the contest.