Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Holger RuneOpen full analysisReilly OpelkaOpen full analysis

Miami MastershardR64Saturday, March 22, 2025
No-vig market probability
Rune 67%33% Opelka
1.46Recorded odds2.91
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Holger RuneVSReilly Opelka
6Set 14
3Set 26
6Set 37

Reilly Opelka won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Holger RuneReilly Opelka
52%
Career Win %
50%
50%
Win % on Hard
50%
79%
Holds Serve
90%
17%
Breaks Serve
8%
61%
1st Serve In
66%
70%
1st Serve Won
77%
35%
Return Pts Won
28%
5.1
Aces / match
16.4
54%
Tiebreak %
54%
50%
Deciding-set %
46%
1565
Rating
1554
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Holger Rune93 serves
Where they place their serve
Reilly Opelka93 serves
Where they place their serve
24%Wide
3%Body
26%T
25%T
1%Body
22%Wide
35%Wide
1%Body
16%T
20%T
3%Body
24%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T26%
Top targetDeuce · Wide35%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Reilly Opelka defeated Holger Rune 4–6, 6–3, 7–6 in the first round of the Miami Masters on hard court on 22 March 2025, upsetting the pre-match favourite. Rune, seeded higher in the betting odds at 1.46, struggled to maintain consistency through three sets, losing the opener before recovering in the second. The match went to a deciding tiebreak, which Opelka claimed to secure a notable upset victory. The American's ability to convert under pressure in the third set proved decisive, particularly in the tiebreak where Rune could not close out the contest despite having opportunities. This result represents a significant scalp for Opelka early in the tournament and raises questions about Rune's form heading into the latter stages of the Miami event.