Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Holger RuneOpen full analysisRoberto Carballes BaenaOpen full analysis

US OpenhardR128Monday, August 28, 2023
No-vig market probability
Rune 88%12% Baena
1.11Recorded odds8.09
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Holger RuneVSRoberto Carballes Baena
3Set 16
6Set 24
3Set 36
2Set 46

Roberto Carballes Baena won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Holger RuneRoberto Carballes Baena
54%
Career Win %
40%
52%
Win % on Hard
33%
80%
Holds Serve
71%
17%
Breaks Serve
18%
61%
1st Serve In
66%
70%
1st Serve Won
64%
35%
Return Pts Won
36%
5.1
Aces / match
2.2
56%
Tiebreak %
50%
52%
Deciding-set %
57%
1600
Rating
1507
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Holger Rune108 serves
Where they place their serve
Roberto Carballes Baena101 serves
Where they place their serve
33%Wide
6%Body
13%T
25%T
4%Body
19%Wide
28%Wide
10%Body
14%T
9%T
17%Body
23%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide33%
Top targetDeuce · Wide28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Roberto Carballes Baena defeated Holger Rune 6–3, 4–6, 6–3, 6–2 in the first round of the US Open on hard court on 28 August 2023, delivering a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. Rune entered as the heavy favourite with odds of 1.11, while Carballes Baena was priced at 8.09, reflecting expectations that the Danish player would advance comfortably. However, the Spanish competitor executed a composed performance, taking control after a competitive opening set and consolidating his advantage through the third and fourth sets to secure a commanding victory. The result marked a notable early exit for Rune at Flushing Meadows and demonstrated Carballes Baena's capacity to trouble higher-ranked opponents on the hard court stage.