Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Hubert HurkaczOpen full analysisRafael NadalOpen full analysis

Rome MastersclayR64Saturday, May 11, 2024
No-vig market probability
Hurkacz 41%59% Nadal
2.40Recorded odds1.65
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Hubert HurkaczVSRafael Nadal
6Set 11
6Set 23

Hubert Hurkacz won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Hubert HurkaczRafael Nadal
60%
Career Win %
72%
60%
Win % on Clay
85%
88%
Holds Serve
84%
16%
Breaks Serve
27%
64%
1st Serve In
69%
77%
1st Serve Won
71%
35%
Return Pts Won
40%
12.1
Aces / match
3.5
52%
Tiebreak %
53%
56%
Deciding-set %
67%
1568
Rating
1728
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Hubert Hurkacz56 serves
Where they place their serve
Rafael Nadal53 serves
Where they place their serve
34%Wide
0%Body
18%T
20%T
4%Body
25%Wide
9%Wide
6%Body
36%T
9%T
15%Body
25%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide34%
Top targetDeuce · T36%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Rafael Nadal 6-1 6-3 at the Rome Masters, an ATP Masters 1000 event on clay, in the first round on 11 May 2024. The result represented a significant upset, with Nadal entering as the pre-match favourite at 1.65 odds against Hurkacz's 2.4. Nadal's struggles on his traditionally favourable surface were evident as he conceded the opening set in commanding fashion before offering minimal resistance in the second, surrendering the match in straight sets. The Pole's dominant performance on clay—a surface where Nadal has historically thrived—raised questions about the Spaniard's physical condition and form heading into the French Open, now just weeks away.