Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Jasmine PaoliniOpen full analysisTalia GibsonOpen full analysis

Indian WellshardR16Tuesday, March 10, 2026
No-vig market probability
Paolini 68%32% Gibson
1.39Recorded odds2.93
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Jasmine PaoliniVSTalia Gibson
5Set 17
6Set 22
1Set 36

Talia Gibson won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Jasmine PaoliniTalia Gibson
62%
Career Win %
48%
52%
Win % on Hard
48%
68%
Holds Serve
73%
38%
Breaks Serve
26%
68%
1st Serve In
58%
62%
1st Serve Won
69%
45%
Return Pts Won
40%
1.2
Aces / match
4.7
71%
Tiebreak %
50%
61%
Deciding-set %
33%
1629
Rating
1535
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Jasmine Paolini86 serves
Where they place their serve
Talia Gibson86 serves
Where they place their serve
16%Wide
24%Body
12%T
19%T
6%Body
23%Wide
15%Wide
20%Body
17%T
19%T
5%Body
24%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Body24%
Top targetAd · Wide24%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Talia Gibson upset second-round favourite Jasmine Paolini 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 in the Indian Wells R16 on hard court, a result that defied pre-match odds heavily in Paolini's favour (1.39 to 2.93). Gibson recovered from losing the opening set to dominate the final frame, winning it 6-1 after Paolini levelled proceedings by taking the second set 6-2. The Italian's inability to sustain momentum through the match proved costly against an opponent who seized control when it mattered most. Gibson's comeback victory represents a significant upset at Masters 1000 level and signals her capacity to compete against top-ranked opposition on hard courts.