Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Jessica PegulaOpen full analysisMadison KeysOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardR16Monday, January 26, 2026
No-vig market probability
Pegula 59%41% Keys
1.59Recorded odds2.33
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Jessica PegulaVSMadison Keys
6Set 13
6Set 24

Jessica Pegula won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Jessica PegulaMadison Keys
60%
Career Win %
60%
62%
Win % on Hard
61%
72%
Holds Serve
76%
36%
Breaks Serve
31%
62%
1st Serve In
64%
66%
1st Serve Won
69%
44%
Return Pts Won
42%
2.9
Aces / match
5.3
53%
Tiebreak %
73%
54%
Deciding-set %
45%
1809
Rating
1659
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Jessica Pegula66 serves
Where they place their serve
Madison Keys59 serves
Where they place their serve
15%Wide
20%Body
17%T
17%T
5%Body
27%Wide
24%Wide
17%Body
12%T
14%T
10%Body
24%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide27%
Top targetDeuce · Wide24%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Jessica Pegula defeated Madison Keys 6-3, 6-4 in the Australian Open round of 16 on hard court, confirming her status as the pre-match favourite with odds of 1.59 to Keys's 2.33. Pegula's composed performance saw her secure both sets with relative comfort, breaking down her American opponent's resistance in straight sets to advance deeper into the tournament. The result underscored Pegula's consistency at the Australian Open and her current form on the hard-court circuit. Keys, despite her powerful game, could not generate sufficient momentum to trouble the favourite in either set. Pegula's progression to the quarter-finals strengthens her claim as a genuine contender for the title.