Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Joao FonsecaOpen full analysisTommy PaulOpen full analysis

Indian Wells MastershardR32Monday, March 9, 2026
No-vig market probability
Fonseca 34%66% Paul
2.74Recorded odds1.42
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Joao FonsecaVSTommy Paul
6Set 12
6Set 23

Joao Fonseca won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Joao FonsecaTommy Paul
59%
Career Win %
50%
60%
Win % on Hard
50%
84%
Holds Serve
80%
20%
Breaks Serve
21%
66%
1st Serve In
62%
71%
1st Serve Won
71%
36%
Return Pts Won
37%
5.5
Aces / match
5.1
53%
Tiebreak %
35%
44%
Deciding-set %
55%
1601
Rating
1702
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Joao Fonseca50 serves
Where they place their serve
Tommy Paul58 serves
Where they place their serve
28%Wide
4%Body
20%T
24%T
0%Body
24%Wide
26%Wide
2%Body
24%T
14%T
3%Body
31%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide28%
Top targetAd · Wide31%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Joao Fonseca defeated Tommy Paul 6–2, 6–3 in the second round of the Indian Wells Masters on hard court, delivering an upset victory against the pre-match favourite. Despite Paul entering as the betting favourite at 1.42 odds, Fonseca's superior court control and consistency proved decisive, with the Brazilian claiming both sets with relative ease. The dominant performance suggests Fonseca has found his rhythm on the hard courts of the California desert, where precision and baseline strength are paramount. This result marks a significant scalp for Fonseca in the Masters 1000 calendar and positions him well for a potential deep run at Indian Wells.