Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Karolína MuchováOpen full analysisMarta KostyukOpen full analysis

US OpenhardR16Monday, September 1, 2025
No-vig market probability
Muchová 58%42% Kostyuk
1.68Recorded odds2.32
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Karolína MuchováVSMarta Kostyuk
6Set 13
6Set 27
6Set 33

Karolína Muchová won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Karolína MuchováMarta Kostyuk
65%
Career Win %
61%
69%
Win % on Hard
63%
76%
Holds Serve
70%
34%
Breaks Serve
37%
63%
1st Serve In
60%
67%
1st Serve Won
68%
43%
Return Pts Won
44%
3.6
Aces / match
3.3
73%
Tiebreak %
55%
56%
Deciding-set %
50%
1746
Rating
1695
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Karolína Muchová127 serves
Where they place their serve
Marta Kostyuk81 serves
Where they place their serve
20%Wide
14%Body
17%T
19%T
17%Body
13%Wide
22%Wide
16%Body
14%T
19%T
19%Body
11%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide20%
Top targetDeuce · Wide22%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Karolína Muchová defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 in the US Open Round of 16 on hard court, confirming her status as the pre-match favourite with odds of 1.68 to Kostyuk's 2.32. Muchová dominated the opening set with a commanding 6-3 victory, though Kostyuk mounted a competitive response in the second, forcing a tie-break which the Ukrainian narrowly won to level the match. The Czech player reasserted control in the decider, securing another 6-3 scoreline to advance to the quarter-finals. The result underscores Muchová's solid form on the hard courts of New York, whilst Kostyuk's inability to convert the momentum from the second-set tie-break proved costly in her bid to progress further.