No-vig market probability
Nishikori 33%67% Paul
2.97Recorded odds1.45
Kei NishikoriVSTommy Paul
7Set 16
0Set 26
3Set 36
1Set 46
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Tommy Paul defeated Kei Nishikori 6–7, 6–0, 6–3, 6–1 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court, confirming his pre-match favourite status with odds of 1.45 against Nishikori's 2.97. After losing a tight opening set to the Japanese veteran, Paul asserted complete control from the second set onward, dismantling his opponent's resistance with successive commanding displays. The American's dominance in the final two sets—particularly the bagel in the second—underscored a significant performance gap once the match's momentum shifted. Paul's progression sets up a second-round encounter that will test whether he can maintain this level against stiffer opposition at Melbourne Park.