Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Kei NishikoriOpen full analysisTommy PaulOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardR64Wednesday, January 15, 2025
No-vig market probability
Nishikori 33%67% Paul
2.97Recorded odds1.45
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Kei NishikoriVSTommy Paul
7Set 16
0Set 26
3Set 36
1Set 46

Tommy Paul won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Kei NishikoriTommy Paul
53%
Career Win %
50%
45%
Win % on Hard
50%
77%
Holds Serve
80%
22%
Breaks Serve
21%
62%
1st Serve In
62%
68%
1st Serve Won
71%
38%
Return Pts Won
37%
2.9
Aces / match
5.1
41%
Tiebreak %
35%
60%
Deciding-set %
55%
1604
Rating
1702
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Kei Nishikori129 serves
Where they place their serve
Tommy Paul104 serves
Where they place their serve
15%Wide
19%Body
19%T
9%T
18%Body
21%Wide
17%Wide
18%Body
16%T
12%T
21%Body
14%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide21%
Top targetAd · Body21%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Tommy Paul defeated Kei Nishikori 6–7, 6–0, 6–3, 6–1 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court, confirming his pre-match favourite status with odds of 1.45 against Nishikori's 2.97. After losing a tight opening set to the Japanese veteran, Paul asserted complete control from the second set onward, dismantling his opponent's resistance with successive commanding displays. The American's dominance in the final two sets—particularly the bagel in the second—underscored a significant performance gap once the match's momentum shifted. Paul's progression sets up a second-round encounter that will test whether he can maintain this level against stiffer opposition at Melbourne Park.