Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Lorenzo MusettiOpen full analysisMatteo ArnaldiOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardR128Tuesday, January 14, 2025
No-vig market probability
Musetti 61%39% Arnaldi
1.60Recorded odds2.50
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Lorenzo MusettiVSMatteo Arnaldi
7Set 16
4Set 26
7Set 36
6Set 43

Lorenzo Musetti won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Lorenzo MusettiMatteo Arnaldi
56%
Career Win %
38%
45%
Win % on Hard
32%
79%
Holds Serve
72%
22%
Breaks Serve
19%
64%
1st Serve In
57%
69%
1st Serve Won
68%
38%
Return Pts Won
36%
3.7
Aces / match
5.3
45%
Tiebreak %
50%
69%
Deciding-set %
29%
1634
Rating
1462
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Lorenzo Musetti147 serves
Where they place their serve
Matteo Arnaldi183 serves
Where they place their serve
18%Wide
7%Body
25%T
22%T
10%Body
18%Wide
16%Wide
10%Body
26%T
14%T
5%Body
30%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T25%
Top targetAd · Wide30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Lorenzo Musetti defeated fellow Italian Matteo Arnaldi 7–6, 4–6, 7–6, 6–3 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court on 14 January 2025, confirming his status as pre-match favourite at odds of 1.6 to Arnaldi's 2.5. The match proved competitive through three sets, with both players claiming a tiebreak apiece before Musetti seized control in the fourth to secure passage to the second round. The result extends Musetti's head-to-head record against his compatriot and demonstrates his capability to navigate tight contests at Grand Slam level early in the season.