Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Lorenzo MusettiOpen full analysisReilly OpelkaOpen full analysis

US OpenhardR128Monday, August 26, 2024
No-vig market probability
Musetti 70%30% Opelka
1.40Recorded odds3.22
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Lorenzo MusettiVSReilly Opelka
7Set 16
1Set 26
6Set 31
7Set 45

Lorenzo Musetti won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Lorenzo MusettiReilly Opelka
56%
Career Win %
50%
45%
Win % on Hard
50%
79%
Holds Serve
90%
22%
Breaks Serve
8%
64%
1st Serve In
66%
69%
1st Serve Won
77%
38%
Return Pts Won
28%
3.7
Aces / match
16.4
45%
Tiebreak %
54%
69%
Deciding-set %
46%
1634
Rating
1554
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Lorenzo Musetti114 serves
Where they place their serve
Reilly Opelka135 serves
Where they place their serve
23%Wide
7%Body
22%T
16%T
9%Body
24%Wide
24%Wide
7%Body
21%T
13%T
8%Body
26%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide24%
Top targetAd · Wide26%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Reilly Opelka 7–6, 1–6, 6–1, 7–5 in the first round of the US Open on hard court on 26 August 2024, confirming his pre-match favourite status with odds of 1.4 to Opelka's 3.22. The Italian's performance was uneven across four sets, surrendering the second set decisively before reasserting control in the third. The opening set went to a tiebreak, then the fourth required a late surge to secure the win. Musetti's ability to recover from the second-set lapse and dominate the third demonstrates the mental resilience required at Grand Slams, though the inconsistency will demand refinement in subsequent rounds.