Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Matteo ArnaldiOpen full analysisNovak DjokovićOpen full analysis

Madrid MastersclayR64Saturday, April 26, 2025
No-vig market probability
Arnaldi 25%75% Djoković
3.93Recorded odds1.28
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Matteo ArnaldiVSNovak Djoković
6Set 13
6Set 24

Matteo Arnaldi won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Matteo ArnaldiNovak Djoković
38%
Career Win %
77%
60%
Win % on Clay
71%
72%
Holds Serve
86%
19%
Breaks Serve
28%
57%
1st Serve In
65%
68%
1st Serve Won
73%
36%
Return Pts Won
40%
5.3
Aces / match
5.9
50%
Tiebreak %
61%
29%
Deciding-set %
71%
1462
Rating
1802
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Matteo Arnaldi74 serves
Where they place their serve
Novak Djoković53 serves
Where they place their serve
19%Wide
8%Body
24%T
19%T
5%Body
24%Wide
23%Wide
2%Body
28%T
25%T
2%Body
21%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T24%
Top targetDeuce · T28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Novak Djoković 6–3, 6–4 at the Madrid Masters on clay in the first round, pulling off a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. The Italian, who carried odds of 3.93 against Djoković's 1.28, controlled both sets with consistent tennis and superior court positioning on the red clay. Djoković, seeded high and expected to advance comfortably, struggled to impose his usual rhythm and failed to find the solutions needed to break Arnaldi's serve and dictate play from the baseline. The straightforward nature of the scoreline underscored Arnaldi's dominance in the encounter. The result represents a career-defining victory for the 23-year-old and raises questions about Djoković's form and readiness on the Madrid clay surface this season.