Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Naomi OsakaOpen full analysisVictoria MbokoOpen full analysis

MontrealhardFThursday, August 7, 2025
No-vig market probability
Osaka 62%38% Mboko
1.58Recorded odds2.55
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Naomi OsakaVSVictoria Mboko
6Set 12
4Set 26
1Set 36

Victoria Mboko won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Naomi OsakaVictoria Mboko
59%
Career Win %
62%
64%
Win % on Hard
61%
75%
Holds Serve
69%
30%
Breaks Serve
35%
58%
1st Serve In
65%
72%
1st Serve Won
67%
42%
Return Pts Won
44%
6.2
Aces / match
4.1
42%
Tiebreak %
50%
56%
Deciding-set %
100%
1672
Rating
1630
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Naomi Osaka86 serves
Where they place their serve
Victoria Mboko92 serves
Where they place their serve
24%Wide
19%Body
8%T
28%T
17%Body
3%Wide
27%Wide
17%Body
7%T
10%T
25%Body
14%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · T28%
Top targetDeuce · Wide27%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Victoria Mboko defeated Naomi Osaka 2–6, 6–4, 6–1 in the final of the Montreal WTA Masters 1000 on hard court on 7 August 2025, delivering a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. Osaka controlled the opening set with relative ease, but Mboko regrouped decisively in the second, breaking Osaka's serve at crucial moments to level the match. The third set proved decisive, with Mboko's aggressive baseline play and improved court positioning overwhelming Osaka, who struggled to find consistency as the match progressed. The upset victory marks a career-defining moment for Mboko, who entered as the underdog at 2.55 odds, while Osaka, favoured at 1.58, failed to claim what would have been a significant title on hard court. Mboko's maiden Masters 1000 triumph substantially elevates her ranking and suggests a potential shift in the competitive landscape at the top of the women's game.